LET THE PUNDITS DOUBT MCCAIN… WE’LL SEE

Pundits from all over the country are beginning to herald the defeat of Republican John McCain to Democrat Barack Obama with just under four weeks left in the presidential election. Citing polls and electoral college analysis, these “wise men and women” believe that Obama’s lead is nearly insurmountable with “so little time left.”

The talking points bear an uncanny resemblance to June of 2007 when McCain was forced to fire much of his staff and had been left for dead by the media. Reports were he was only days away from ending his campaign, but look where he is now.

Hopping on the pessimistic doomsday bandwagon today was the South Carolina blog What Would Tyler Durden Do FITSNews, which noted an “inside source” who said, “unless there’s a terrorist attack on U.S. soil within the next month, it’s over.” Unfortunately, my “inside sources” said their “inside sources” heard it from their “inside sources” that all of FITSNews’ “inside sources” are Gov. Mark Sanford and his cronies.

And I can’t imagine any reason why Sanford and sons would want to push an anti-McCain narrative. No reason at all.

Now, I’ll admit, I’d much rather be in Obama’s position than in McCain’s position. There’s no doubt he’s winning. And granted, I’m an ardent McCain supporter. But there are still 27 days left in the election, including two debates.

To use the almost-trite sports metaphor, its the equivalent of being down two touchdown with four minutes left in the game. But Republicans have both Brett Favre (McCain) and Jerry Rice (running mate Sarah Palin).

The way I see it, the two debates offer McCain the opportunity to score those two touchdowns. And the onside kick will come in the form of doing everything right for the rest of the campaign.

It’s not easy, but it’s certainly doable. A look at the electoral math that has been so highly touted as McCain demise proves it.

First, note that most polling has shown a solid undecided base at 5 percent or greater. Another 15 percent in any poll could easily change their vote as late as the moment they enter the polling booth.

As it stands right now, there are nine battleground states whose Real Clear Politics average is less than seven points either way. Those states combine for 121 electoral votes, of which McCain must win all but 16.

Giving Obama Wisconsin (10) where he is up 6 percent, and McCain Indiana (11) where he is up 3 percent, along with historically red states Missouri (11) and North Carolina (15) which are tied, we’ve got a score of 264-200 Obama.

That means McCain must win all five remaining states: Florida (27), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Colorado (9) and Nevada (5). All of those states were won by President Bush in 2000 and 2004, and all of those states are currently polling within the margin of error.

If he wins the first four and loses Nevada, then it would be a 269-269 tie and would go to the Democratically-controlled House of Representatives where Obama would likely win. So he needs all five, and I know he can win all five.

Call it wishful thinking. Call it the ramblings of a delusional McCain backer. Call it what you like, but don’t call McCain out just yet.

McCain thrives when he’s down. He’s flourishes when people count him out. Tell him he can’t do something, and he’ll do it.