Winthrop/ETV Poll: McCain up 16 points in South
REPUBLICAN HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD IN ALL KEY ISSUE AREAS
I hope I don’t upset my friends at The State by stealing their “exclusive” on the results from the August Winthrop/ETV poll of likely voters in 11 Southern states, released to the media earlier today, but I’m going to do it anyway.
The big news is that Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads his Democratic opponent Barack Obama by a resounding 51 to 35 percent.
Of the 1,088 respondents from from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina and Virginia, nearly 90 percent didn’t care if the vice president was a Southerner. Nearly half of those polled felt Obama lacked the experience necessary to be president.
And, not surprisingly, McCain has a double-digit advantage when it comes to in tackling energy problems (including gas prices), the situation in Iraq, taxes, illegal immigration, and terrorism — basically, all of the key issues.
“McCain’s support is rock solid in so many ways that in those places where Obama identifies even the smallest hairline crack, he needs to pry it open if he hopes to draw voters away from McCain — especially in a state like Virginia, where the race may ultimately be decided by a handful of votes,” said Dr. Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop/ETV Poll. “The Southern working class is still not familiar with Obama, and trust is the key to this demographic.”
The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.97 percent and data is weighted by state.
Among the Winthrop/ETV Poll findings:
* When given the scenario where the election was being held the day they were called, and the candidates were Barack Obama and John McCain, among all of the likely voters, McCain led with 51.3 percent over Obama’s 35.1 percent.
* Sen. Hillary Clinton and Former President Bill Clinton will play highly visible roles at the Democratic Convention next week, some say in an effort to salve lingering wounds over Hillary Clinton’s defeat at Obama’s hands. Yet, when asked if they ever seriously considered not voting in the general election, if Hillary Clinton didn’t get the nod, almost 80 percent of self-identified Clinton supporters
said no.
* Although over 70 percent of those polled said the VP choice was very, or somewhat, important in helping them decide their pick for the top spot, over 87 percent said it makes no difference if the VP candidate hailed from the South.
* Over 50 percent of all the respondents disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president, while almost 63 percent of them feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.
* The one issue respondents cited as the most important to them in the upcoming presidential election was overwhelmingly the economy (35.7 percent). By a margin of almost three-to-one they chose the economy over Iraq (12.0), and the next most popular response, the price of gas, by close to a six-to-one margin (5.8 percent).
* When asked who would do a better job, Obama or McCain, in tackling energy (including gas prices), the situation in Iraq, taxes, illegal immigration, and terrorism, McCain stacked up a double-digit lead on each of those issues.
* Who would do a better job on healthcare elicited a far different response. Obama and McCain were neck-and-neck, with less than one percent separating the two (41.6 McCain to 40.8 Obama).
* When it comes to which candidate understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives, Obama slightly bested McCain among all those polled (41.1 to 39.1) and by an over six percent margin among those likely voters living in the peripheral South (43.2 to 36.8) in NC, VA, FL, AR, TN, TX. Some believe that three of these states are in play, and may go Democratic on Election Day.
* Fully one-third of the poll’s respondents felt that neither Obama nor McCain had a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.
* Over 56 percent of all those polled said it was very, or somewhat important that a president has served in the U.S. military, while over 28 percent thought it was not at all important; less than six percentage points separated those who are at least somewhat concerned from those who are least somewhat unconcerned McCain will pursue policies too similar to George Bush’s; almost half of all
respondents (49.4) feel Obama lacks the necessary experience to be president.
* Despite the fact that this will be the first time that Americans have the opportunity to vote for an African-American for president, almost three-out-of-four blacks say that the race of the candidate for president is either not very important, or not at all important.
* Among the remaining respondents (All, Deep South, Peripheral South, Whites, Working Class Whites), at least 80 percent said the race of the candidate was either not very important, or not at all important.
* McCain will be turning 72 on Aug. 29. When asked at what age would you say someone is too old to run for the presidency, over one-third either said no age is too old, or they weren’t sure what that age would be. The median age identified by respondents as “too old” was 74.
It is interesting that the comparison with Churchill regular comes up when McCain’s age is mentioned. I know a fair bit about Churchill having done a great deal of research for my book What Would Churchill Do?-Business advice from the man who saved the world, as I live in England my knowledge of John McCain is very limited.
The first obvious comparison is age at 71 McCain is 6 years older than Churchill was at the outbreak of war, but as Churchill said himself, one of the reasons why he was so successful at managing the war was because his experience had been EARNED, NOT LEARNED, so it could be that the knowledge and experience McCain has gained through his life could be to the advantage of the American people over a younger candidate.
The secret to Churchill’s success in the war was the fact that he got involved with everything and put his own stamp on how things should be done. Whilst people often quote how Churchill inspired Britain with his speeches and courage, which is certainly true, it was his practical decision making, tough leadership and attention to detail that made the real difference.
If John McCain has these qualities along with his proven courage and experience then he might be good for America.
I simply do not believe these numbers, this polling. The people in my neighborhood, my family,the people at my Church, at the gym, at the grocery stores, are overheard talking negatively about John McCain. These people are republicans, like my old ma and pa, who are staying home for the first time ever in a Presidential election. They are ” real” Republicans. They noticed their party got taken over by hostile elements. The party just didn’t notice that they no longer represent what old Republicans represented and many of the elected fell in lock step with these people. Of course, I think the group crosses party lines as well and the jury is out on whether Obama is one of them or not. Knowing nothing happens without planning in politics, one must wonder if Obama is one of them, and most old timey ” real ” Republicans feel that way.
No one is happy with the choices for President. That ought to be reflected in these polls that say McCain is ahead. I do not believe these polls. I think we are at the point that paper voting is necessary to assure fair outcome.
If voters are allowed to still write in candidates, I believe anyone else that organizes a campaign can get all of these people to support them by write in.
**Ain’t that democracy?? Ain’t that what Americans believe in???
If it were possible to elect a good president, then we wouldn’t have elections anymore.
We sure are going to get the president we deserve though.