McCain leads by 13 in latest SC poll
DEMOCRAT SURVEY SHOWS GOP GAINING GROUND IN STATE
Republican presidential nominee John McCain has a 53 to 40 lead over Democrat Barack Obama in South Carolina, according to a poll released late Friday by the liberal blog DailyKos. Kos and polling firm Research 2000 conducted the live telephone survey of 500 likely voters with a margin of error at 4.5 percent.
Noted Kos:
Obama is getting only 15 percent of the white vote. Kerry, for his part, got 22 percent of the white vote in 2004. This poll closely tracks black turnout with the 2004 election (31 percent versus 30 percent in 2004), and we can assume those numbers will be greatly boosted thanks to Obama’s presence in the field. However, those white numbers make it extremely difficult to make a go of this state. Perhaps that’s why the Obama campaign talks more about Georgia than they do about South Carolina.
This poll was released a little more than a week after Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh, NC based firm, had McCain leading by six points. If this trend continues, McCain will win the state by 70 points. Hey, I’m just trying to have a little hope here.
(h/t Pollster)
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UPDATE: I missed this before, but why on earth did DailyKos poll favorable/unfavorable for Andrew Rice, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma? And more importantly, how did he have any name ID whatsoever in South Carolina?
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UPDATE 2: Markos Moulitsas from DailyKos just got back to me and said the Andrew Rice thing was a “scripting error.” Which makes sense because I can’t imagine any conceivable way that a freshman state senator from Oklahoma would have such high favorables/unfavorables here. It’s since been corrected.
All of this if anyone believes polls. Who’d they call? What time of day? Did they balance race, age, gender in this poll? All of that is doubtful …. And don’t forget the cell phone factor.
I believe many Republicans are sick of their own party and will sit this race out,especially older Republican voters. I can’t tell you how many people I hear that say they won’t vote for either candidate.
Then you have tons of people who will turn out to vote Graham out of the Senate but all of this is far far from any done deal.
I predict SC will go blue Obama.
I beg to differ, loulou. I’ve heard the same excuses countless times before, and yet…I’ve been disappointed time and time again as the polls in South Carolina prove to be more or less accurate. Listen, I’m as big a bleeding-heart liberal as anyone from South Carolina, but quite frankly, I’m quickly losing hope, especially when it comes to Mr. Obama’s chances in South Carolina. Am I saying don’t show up at the polls? Hell no! We need you–and every other yellow-dog Democrat and fed-up independent in the state–to go to the polls and express their dissatisfaction. I want the state of South Carolina to prove me wrong for a change. But I’ve been trying to get those same disaffected voters to the polls for years now, and I’m sure you can tell how successful I’ve been at it…
Which partially explains why I moved to New Mexico this election cycle to work the Congressional races. At least I have a fighting chance of being on a WINNING campaign this time around…