S.C. COULD REGAIN 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AFTER 2010 CENSUS

For the first time since 1933, South Carolina could have a seventh member of the U.S. House of Representatives. If forecasts for the re-apportionment of Congressional districts following the 2010 census are accurate, both of the Carolinas would pick up another seat in the Capitol.

But the Myrtle Beach Sun News notes that observers are quick to caution that the formula is incredibly intricate and the outcome is very difficult to predict.

This decade’s population shifts from north to south – especially along the coast – could boost the political prominence of the Carolinas in general, and the Grand Strand in particular. [...]

Using a complex duck-duck-goose scheme, the Census Bureau orders the states by population, then parcels congressional seats out, one at a time, until all 435 are assigned. The formula is so complicated that it has been mathematically proven to have built-in paradoxes, and only a few analysts make projections each year.

Clark Benson of Polidata Political Data Analysis predicts that each of the Carolinas will receive one new congressional seat, bringing South Carolina to seven and North Carolina to 14. Benson notes, however, that states such as Pennsylvania, Washington and California could overtake either Carolina.

Kimball W. Brace of Election Data Services uses three different models for his apportionment forecast. The two models that use short-term and midrange growth patterns – which he says may be more accurate, given recent housing market fluctuations – both show a new seat for both Carolinas, but the long-term model does not include either state. ROBERT MORRIS – Myrtle Beach Sun News]

Almost as exciting as who will represent this potential seat — although, we probably won’t be holding this election for another four to six years, so it’s probably a bit early to speculate — is how badly the state legislature will gerrymander the new district. I have no doubt that it will be similar to the current map.

I’m not going to argue the fairness or correctness of the practice, but the lack of competition that has arisen from drawing districts to manipulate demographics makes U.S. House elections pretty darn boring. For some that’s a good thing, but it leaves me with less to write about.

You can read more about Congressional apportionment here. But only if you’re into that kind of thing.