A number of people have written presidential hopeful John McCain off as too much of a long shot to win the Republican nomination.  And without a doubt he has a lot of catching up to do.  But as Dan Hoover noted yesterday with Fred Thompson, he still has a path to victory.

It will not be easy for McCain to pull off, but there are scenarios — for McCain a “perfect storm” of events breaking his way, according to some pundits — in which he could still wrest the GOP nomination away from his rivals.

One of them goes something like this: Huckabee wins the Iowa caucus Jan. 3 and Romney finishes second. McCain is running far behind in Iowa and barely campaigning there.

A Romney win could propel him to victory in New Hampshire where he now leads McCain in the polls, so, for McCain, it is critical that Romney be stopped in Iowa. A Huckabee win in Iowa would be a huge setback for Romney, who has invested time and money — lots of money — into winning there followed by New Hampshire for an early one-two punch that would ignite his campaign. [...]

A Romney loss in Iowa could open the door in New Hampshire for McCain. He and the Granite State have a “relationship” that goes back to 2000 when he stunned George W. Bush in the GOP primary and won by 19 points.

McCain remains popular there, admired even by some voters who have drifted away this year to Romney or Giuliani. He draws large, enthusiastic crowds to his campaign events, and recently won the key endorsement of the state’s newspaper, the New Hampshire Union-Leader.  [...]

To maintain the momentum from a New Hampshire win, McCain would have to do well in the South Carolina primary 11 days later. [...]

If McCain can prevail in South Carolina — even a close second-place finish might be good enough — the Republican race could be turned upside down. Romney would be down and probably out.

Giuliani would be left still looking for a win after the big three of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Huckabee would be stalled. And former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson would be 0 for 3 and likely reeling. And McCain would be rolling.

And Philip Klein of the American Spectator had similar thoughts:

In the new CNN poll, John McCain is the most competitive among Democrats (and the only candidate who leads Hillary Clinton). He is also rock solid on national security, an opponent of wasteful government spending, and pro-life. He was written off for dead during the summer by many pundits, but has survived, and it’s now quite possible that he could rise from the pack in this chaotic field and capture the nomination, a la John Kerry in 2004.

Let’s say Mike Huckabee wins

Iowa. Mitt Romney, the current New Hampshire frontrunner, will head into the

Granite State hobbled by stories about how he spent millions of dollars building a top-flight organization for over a year, only to lose to a candidate with little formal organization, spending pennies to Romney’s dollar. While Romney was in a pitched and losing battle in Iowa, McCain will have made

New Hampshire his second home for a month, and it’s a place where he won in 2000, maintained a stellar organization, and gained the endorsement of the state’s largest newspaper this time around. It will also be less-hospitable terrain for Huckabee. A win for McCain there would solidify the “comeback kid” narrative heading into

Michigan, where he also won in 2000, so let’s say he pulls it out again. Then Romney will have lost three, including his childhood home state, and will be severely weakened heading into South Carolina, which is currently all bunched up together, and McCain, with all the momentum, could emerge from the pack. As the race moves on to

Florida and Feb. 5, there are other factors to consider. Heading into a national primary, McCain does have a national profile, that, coupled with his winning streak, could gain him an edge over Rudy Giuliani and lead him to the nomination. And should either Giuliani or Fred Thompson be forced to drop out of the race earlier than expected, either one would be likely to endorse McCain. Giuliani has explicitly said he would be supporting McCain were he not running himself, and Thompson and McCain are old friends in the Senate. [PHILIP KLEIN - American Spectator]

Does McCain face an uphill battle?  Absolutely.  Are the odds in his favor?  Absolutely not.  But, like Thompson, can he still make a comeback?  You bet.

More than anything though, these stories and others discussing likely scenarios point to one thing: South Carolina is very likely, once again, to be the kingmaker.

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Photo: LA Times