‘NOT MUCH,’ PALMETTO SCOOP SAYS

One of the biggest stories to hit the presidential primary news circuit last week was televangelist Pat Robertson’s shocking endorsement of Rudy Giuliani. While it may not have a large impact in New Hampshire or California, Robertson’s influence may be felt more in South Carolina.

Reason magazine’s Jeff Taylor, who believes S.C. “will be a proving ground for Robinson’s endorsement of Giuliani,” took a rather professorial look at the reasons behind Giuliani’s early lead in the state and the impact of .

This screams the question: If Robertson’s support is so important, why was Rudy already looking good—leading in one Fox poll—in the Palmetto State without Robertson?

A couple of reasons.

For one, although South Carolina is still more socially conservative and Southern Baptist than many parts of the country, it grows less so by the year. Wealthy retirees with diverse corporate backgrounds stream to the state for its mild climate, low taxes, and golf. These are Republicans to be sure, but not necessarily of the social conservative bent.

For them, prosperity and security are voting issues, not gay marriage or abortion. And here Rudy’s reflexive 9/11-because-9/11-remember-9/11 rap matters. These folks have reaped the benefits of America, and are not looking for the nation’s savior, just a competent protector of their investment.

That may sound like a low bar, but after years of bumbling by the Bush administration, perhaps not so low. Besides, the competence question points to why I think Giuliani may also have appeal to state residents with longer memories and deeper Carolina roots. The Giuliani camp may or may not even know it, but his “steady executive in a time of crisis” meme echoes the career of Charleston Mayor Joe Riley. The Democrat was first elected in 1975 and won another four-year term last week with 63 percent of the vote. [JEFF TAYLOR - Reason Magazine]

From there, Taylor just fawns over Rudy and drools a lot and it’s just not a pretty sight. Regardless, we question whether or not he really knows what the hell he’s talking about.

While the whole “Yankees turned pro-choice, anti-gun South Carolinians” paradigm would explain Giuliani’s slim Palmetto State lead, it wreaks of the macro-minded, sweeping generalizations that prove futile in forecasting political elections.

So we have a more “Occam’s razorish” thought: perhaps the majority of S.C. residents aren’t paying attention yet. Maybe it has less to do with some mass web of contrived cause and effect and effect and cause and that guy resembles this guy and Bush sucks and cause + cause x 2 = effect – 35, and more to do with the notion that people just don’t care yet.

We who cover this stuff day in and day out have the perception that all 4.32 million South Carolinians follow the presidential primaries in a similar fashion. But grab ten people off the street and ask them about Rudy Giuliani. It’s a good bet that eight or nine will be able to identify the man, but far fewer will be able talk about his issue stances.

But nah, that couldn’t be the explanation. That’s too simple!